Grow With Confidence
Weighing a real investment? Test it before you commit the money.
We test up to three options, including staging or waiting, under expected and downside conditions. You see the cash flow, the break-even, the assumptions that matter most, and what would change the answer.
The opportunity looks good. Will it still look good in a bad year?
Big investments usually get decided in good years, on confident numbers. We test the decision against the conditions it will actually have to survive, before the money is committed.
A good fit if you’re considering
- New equipment, a facility, or more production capacity
- Entering a new market or expanding distribution
- Launching a new product or service
- Taking on significant staff or operating costs
- A new business model or a major change of direction
Probably not the right fit if
- You’re not sure which opportunity to pursue yet. Start with Three Ways Forward.
- The real issue is efficiency, not growth. Try Stop the Hidden Leaks.
- The decision involves several parties, connected investments or public consequences. Talk to us about a custom engagement.
Sectors we often work with: dairy, red meat, kiwifruit and horticulture, Māori primary assets, food, beverage and FMCG, energy and utilities, plus manufacturing, professional services and other small to medium businesses.
Test it before you commit.
Our AI-driven scenario analysis models the options and conditions. A senior principal leads the work, challenges every assumption and interprets the results for you.
Define the decision
The opportunity, the commitment, your objectives and constraints, and what happens if you don’t proceed.
Set the options
Up to three, such as proceed now, proceed in stages, or wait.
Run the scenarios
Each option tested under expected and downside conditions, and a stronger case where the data supports it.
Assess the money
Capital, revenue, operating costs, cash flow, break-even and returns, wherever the data supports reliable estimates.
Test and recommend
The assumptions that move the result most, and a clear recommendation, including what would change it.
Know whether to invest, and how.
Whether to proceed, how to proceed, what could go wrong, and the conditions that would change the recommendation.
Investment decision brief
The opportunity, the choices and the recommendation, on one page.
Scenario comparison
Each option under expected and downside conditions, side by side.
Financial assessment
Capital, cash flow, break-even and returns, where the data supports them.
Sensitivity analysis
The assumptions, such as demand, price, cost or timing, that change the answer most.
Risks and people
The downside exposures, early warning signs, who decides and who is affected.
Executive presentation
A 14 to 20 page report and a 60-minute presentation with your principal.
What’s inside.
- Investment decision briefOne page: the recommendation and what would change it.
- The decision and baselineWhat happens if you don’t proceed.
- Options testedUp to three, including staging or waiting.
- ScenariosExpected and downside conditions for each option.
- Financial assessmentCapital, revenue, costs, cash flow, break-even and returns.
- Sensitivity analysisThe assumptions that move the result most.
- Risks and peopleEarly warning signs, who decides and who is affected.
- RecommendationProceed, stage, change approach, wait, or don’t proceed.
- Evidence and assumptionsWhere every number came from, and how sure we are.
Your numbers, checked before we model them.
The assumptions check partway through means you confirm the figures you’ve given us before the final modelling, so the results rest on numbers you agree with.
Your time
About 3.5 hours in total.
- Online questionnaire15 min
- Decision session90 min
- Assumptions check30 min
- Executive presentation60 min
What we need from you
Send it in whatever format you already use.
- Financial statements, last two to three yearsEssential
- Quotes or cost estimates for the investmentEssential
- Sales by product, service or customerEssential
- Cash flow, finance terms, market informationHelpful
One fixed price. No surprises.
A fraction of what a poor investment decision costs. You know the full price before you start, and you pay as the work progresses.
Grow With Confidence, fixed price.
- 50%On booking$3,250
- 30%At the assumptions check$1,950
- 20%Before your report is released$1,300
Included
- Decision session
- Up to 5 data sources, tidied for you
- Up to three options, expected and downside
- Financial assessment and sensitivities
- Assumptions check
- 14 to 20 page report
- Executive presentation
Not included
- Business valuation
- Audited financial forecasts
- Due diligence
- Arranging finance
- Guaranteed returns
Decide, then deliver.
Whatever the recommendation, you’ll know your next move.
About Grow With Confidence.
Is this a forecast?
No. We test scenarios, not predictions. Each result is shown as a range with a confidence rating, so you can see how much weight it can bear.
What if the answer is “don’t do it”?
That’s a valid outcome, and often the most valuable one. The recommendation could be to proceed, proceed in stages, change the approach, wait, or not proceed at all.
Can I share the report with my accountant or bank?
Yes. It’s written to be shared with your board, accountant, bank or investors. It isn’t a valuation, audited forecast or due diligence, and doesn’t replace their advice.
Do I get the model?
You get the findings, tables and charts in the report. Our models and working files stay with us.
What is the assumptions check?
A 30-minute session partway through where you confirm the figures you’ve given us, such as costs, prices and volumes, before we run the final modelling.
Start with a free Exposure Check.
A 30-minute conversation with a principal. We’ll confirm whether Grow With Confidence is the right fit, and if it isn’t, we’ll tell you what is. You can also see a sample report.
Book a free Exposure Check →