Independent investigations
Public-data scenario analysis on decisions that matter to New Zealand.
Each investigation uses the same method as our paid work: realistic options, including doing nothing, tested against the conditions that could play out. Scenarios, not forecasts. No sign-up needed.
Every figure is traced to a public source, such as Stats NZ, MPI or Health NZ, or to a stated assumption.
Every set of choices is measured against doing nothing, so the cost of waiting is visible.
Reviewed by a Pūtake Labs principal. No organisation commissioned or endorsed these investigations.
Invest now, stage it, or wait?
What it is about
A New Zealand manufacturer with about $18m of sales is running at 93% of capacity and weighing a $4m expansion. We test four options over five years: invest now, stage it, defer for 18 months behind a demand gate, or do nothing. Each is tested under expected demand, weak demand and an energy price shock, using an illustrative business built from public data.
Highlights
- Deferring for 18 months behind a demand gate gives the best five-year value in the expected case and avoids losses if demand stalls.
- Investing now loses about $1.6m against doing nothing if demand is weak.
- Investing now needs demand growth above about 5.4% a year to break even; staging or deferring needs about 4.1% to 4.3%.
- Doing nothing is not free: it turns away about $9.2m of sales over five years.
Where is New Zealand red meat exposed?
What it is about
Red meat exports reached about $13.2bn in 2025-26, but US tariffs have been reset several times, a US lamb safeguard investigation opened in July, and freight costs rose after the Strait of Hormuz closed. We test how a typical processor-exporter fares if it stays the course, diversifies lamb away from the US now, or invests in holding its US position.
Highlights
- New Zealand sold about $600m of sheepmeat to the US in 2025, at about $22/kg against a $14/kg global average.
- Moving lamb out of the US only beats staying if the extra tariff passes about 64%, when US buyers absorb 60% of it.
- Under an adverse shift, about 80% of the hit to an exporter’s margin comes from lower US beef prices, not the lamb tariff.
- Holding the US position is the most resilient choice; diversifying early costs about $2.7m a year.
Can AI close New Zealand’s health workforce gap?
What it is about
Health New Zealand projects a need for about 12,000 more doctors, nurses and allied health workers by 2033, and an AI scribe is now live in every emergency department. We test three adoption pathways to 2033: limited (today’s position, the do-nothing baseline), targeted and broader adoption, against three levels of evidence for how much time AI really saves.
Highlights
- Even broader adoption covers about a tenth of the 2033 workforce gap in the central case.
- Across nine tested cases, AI covers between 0.2% and 19.1% of the gap.
- Targeted adoption pays its way if each routine user gains about 3.7% more patient-care time.
- Almost half of broader adoption’s benefit rests on AI triage, the least tested part.
Where could the cost of living go next?
What it is about
Inflation is 3.7%, petrol hit a record in October and unemployment is at its highest in more than a decade. We test three paths for the next 12 months: current conditions continue (the baseline), an external cost shock and easing pressures. We look at six household groups using Stats NZ’s household living-costs data, and at an illustrative small business.
Highlights
- Costs for the average household rise about 2.4% (about $42 a week) if current conditions continue, 5.6% under a shock and 0.9% if pressures ease.
- A renewed external shock would roughly double cost growth for every household group.
- Superannuitants face the most pressure in the baseline, mainly from rates and power.
- A small business that absorbs a shock would see its margin fall from 8% to about 2.7%.
Want this applied to your decision?
These investigations use the same method as our paid work. A free 30-minute Exposure Check with a principal will tell you which package fits your decision, or whether it needs a custom engagement. You can also see the packages.
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